Calculating Pythagorean winning percentage for 2008

By daigo | Published: Wednesday, January 14, 2009

I had this kinda crazy idea of doing pythagorean flash calculator of Red Sox, Yankes and Rays for boston.com. According pythagorean expectation, a baseball team’s winning percentage is 1 divided by 1 plus runs allowed divided by runs scored square. Pythagorean expectation formula

but for it to make sense, the 2008 numbers has to come pretty close to the actual numbers. So here is your 2008 numbers.

American League 2008
East W L PCT RS RA PYTH W% PYTH W PYTH L Off by:
y–Tampa Bay 97 65 .599 774 671 .571 92 70 -5
w–Boston 95 67 .586 845 694 .597 97 65 2
New York 89 73 .549 789 727 .541 88 74 -1
Toronto 86 76 .531 714 610 .578 94 68 8
Baltimore 68 93 .422 782 869 .447 72 90 4
y–Chicago 89 74 .546 811 729 .553 90 72 1
Minnesota 88 75 .54 829 745 .553 90 72 2
Cleveland 81 81 .5 805 761 .528 86 76 5
Kansas City 75 87 .463 691 781 .439 71 91 -4
Detroit 74 88 .457 821 857 .479 78 84 4
y–Los Angeles 100 62 .617 765 697 .546 89 73 -11
Texas 79 83 .488 901 967 .465 75 87 -4
Oakland 75 86 .466 646 690 .467 76 86 1
Seattle 61 101 .377 671 811 .406 66 96 5
National League 2008
y–Philadelphia 92 70 .568 799 680 .580 94 68 2
New York 89 73 .549 799 715 .555 90 72 1
Florida 84 77 .522 770 767 .502 81 81 -3
Atlanta 72 90 .444 753 778 .484 78 84 6
Washington 59 102 .366 641 825 .376 61 101 2
y–Chicago 97 64 .602 855 671 .619 100 62 3
w–Milwaukee 90 72 .556 750 689 .542 88 74 -2
Houston 86 75 .534 712 743 .479 78 84 -8
St. Louis 86 76 .531 779 725 .536 87 75 1
Cincinnati 74 88 .457 704 800 .436 71 91 -3
Pittsburgh 67 95 .414 735 884 .409 66 96 -1
y–Los Angeles 84 78 .519 700 648 .539 87 75 3
Arizona 82 80 .506 720 706 .510 83 79 1
Colorado 74 88 .457 747 822 .452 73 89 -1
San Francisco 72 90 .444 640 759 .416 67 95 -5
San Diego 63 99 .389 637 764 .410 66 96 3

Well, it doesn’t work. Especially AL East comes out Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays, Yanks then Orioles. It is completely off. That would make the whole calculator worthless…. Oh, well. It was interesting idea anyways.

Here is 2007, for just a fun of it.

American League 2007
East W L PCT RS RA PYTH W% PYTH W PYTH L Off by:
Boston 96 66 .593 867 657 .635 103 59 7
New York 94 68 .58 968 777 .608 99 63 5
Toronto 83 79 .512 753 699 .537 87 75 4
Baltimore 69 93 .426 756 868 .431 70 92 1
Tampa Bay 66 96 .407 782 944 .407 66 96 0
Cleveland 96 66 .593 811 704 .570 92 70 -4
Detroit 88 74 .543 887 797 .553 90 72 2
Minnesota 79 83 .488 718 725 .495 80 82 1
Chicago 72 90 .444 693 839 .406 66 96 -6
Kansas City 69 93 .426 706 778 .452 73 89 4
Los Angeles 94 68 .58 822 731 .558 90 72 -4
Seattle 88 74 .543 794 813 .488 79 83 -9
Oakland 76 86 .469 741 758 .489 79 83 3
Texas 75 87 .463 816 844 .483 78 84 3
National League 2007
Philadelphia 89 73 .549 892 821 .541 88 74 -1
New York 88 74 .543 804 750 .535 87 75 -1
Atlanta 84 78 .519 810 733 .550 89 73 5
Washington 73 89 .451 673 783 .425 69 93 -4
Florida 71 91 .438 790 891 .440 71 91 0
Chicago 85 77 .525 752 690 .543 88 74 3
Milwaukee 83 79 .512 801 776 .516 84 78 1
St. Louis 78 84 .481 725 829 .433 70 92 -8
Houston 73 89 .451 723 813 .442 72 90 -1
Cincinnati 72 90 .444 783 853 .457 74 88 2
Pittsburgh 68 94 .42 724 846 .423 68 94 0
Arizona 90 72 .556 712 732 .486 79 83 -11
Colorado 90 73 .552 860 758 .563 91 71 1
San Diego 89 74 .546 741 666 .553 90 72 1
Los Angeles 82 80 .506 735 727 .505 82 80 0
San Francisco 71 91 .438 683 720 .474 77 85 6
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